Iowa Football will need a near-perfect game to defeat No. 9 Oregon at home

The Hawkeyes welcome the Ducks to Kinnick with major CFP implications
The Iowa Hawkeyes swarm onto the field ahead of a football game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers Oct. 25, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.
The Iowa Hawkeyes swarm onto the field ahead of a football game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers Oct. 25, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff Committee is starting to take notice of the Hawkeyes this season, putting them at 20 in their first release of the CFP rankings.

They will have an opportunity to prove that the ranking was not a fluke as they host the #9-ranked Oregon Ducks on Saturday. The Ducks have one loss this season to Indiana, so there's that similarity with these two teams.

This game will have a lot of eyes on it, as it carries playoff implications. The Ducks have looked like a championship-caliber team for most of the season. However, they have also shown that they are beatable.

It will take a near-perfect game, but a win in Kinnick is definitely not impossible for the Hawkeyes. Here are the keys to victory for this game.

The running backs need to set the tone

Kamari Moulton
Oct 25, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kamari Moulton (28) runs the ball against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The most notable aspect of Oregon this season has been its defense. They are No. 1 in the NCAA in passing yards allowed with 114.1 passing yards allowed per game and No. 2 in opponent completion percentage at 44.3 percent.

Fans have asked for the passing offense to open up, but it's unlikely to happen in this game. The running game needs to be at its best for the team to have a shot.

Look for Kamari Moulton to get several carries in this game, especially with the second and third string RBs being out for this game. Both Xavier Williams and Terrell Washington have proven they can break off long runs when Moulton needs a breather.

If the RB corps can break out some long runs and keep the possessions alive, the offense will be in a great place throughout the game.

Limit the turnovers

Mark Gronowski
Oct 25, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

A key follow-up to victory for the offense is that when Mark Gronowski drops back to pass, having good vision and awareness is essential. In both of the losses that the Hawkeyes have suffered, Gronowski threw a costly interception that ended up being the difference in the game.

He has had some great passing games this season, so he is more than capable.

In the Ducks' victories this season, they have been able to capitalize on the opposing quarterback's mistakes and put the team in good field position. In a game of this magnitude, every possession counts, and the team cannot afford a possession ending in a turnover.

If Gronowski can play smart like he has done in many games this season and doesn't let the pressure get to him, the offense will be just fine.

The defense needs to bring the pressure

Aaron Graves
Iowa Hawkeyes defensive lineman Aaron Graves (95) sacks Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey (5) Oct. 25, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While a lot of the attention has rightfully been focused on the Ducks' defense, their offense is not one to be overlooked either, led by Dante Moore at quarterback. Moore is a competent quarterback with only four interceptions on the season and has passed for nearly 1,800 yards.

He is as good a quarterback as the Hawkeyes have seen this season.

However, if you look at the Ducks' lone loss of the season, Moore was sacked six times in that game and threw two interceptions.

He has not faced much pressure in games this season and has not had many defensive backs cause him to make difficult decisions.

Final thoughts

The defense's job is simple: Play Hawkeye defense. Keep pressure on the quarterback, don't allow extended plays or missed tackles, and play to your assignment. This has proven effective in all their games this season when they do that.

Outside of the Indiana game, this is going to be one of the Hawkeyes' toughest tests of the season, and it is going to take every single person to beat the Ducks. If they can play like they have numerous times this season, the Ducks will likely go home with a loss.

However, if they play like they did in their previous losses, this could be a challenging game to watch. Fans should be optimistic and look forward to a great game against two teams contending for a spot in the college football playoff.

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