One of the biggest games of the year always happens in week two, and each team has had this game circled on their calendars all offseason.
Despite what anyone on either side tells you, this game is comparable to the Super Bowl for each program, and the Hawkeyes must treat it as such. Iowa has dropped three of the last four games in the series, excluding a vacated 2023 win thanks to recruiting violations surrounding former quarterback Cade McNamara. Iowa is a heavy favorite before this year's matchup, and they must play like the better team.
Early odds have Iowa as a massive favorite, but the Hawkeyes can't look past ISU
Both programs look very different from last season, especially Iowa State. The No. 16-ranked Cyclones barely escaped Jack Trice with a win last season after making a last-second field goal, and the squad was decimated by transfers after head coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State. Iowa also only returned eight starters, but has a more talented roster overall. The Hawkeyes enter this game as a 13.5-point favorite, which is a massive spread given how close these two teams always play.
The past five games have been decided by a total of 24 points, with 10 being the largest differential in 2021 during an Iowa win (27-17). The Hawkeyes looked very good in week one, albeit against a much weaker NIU team, but the real test will be this weekend. Iowa still has a glaring issue at the starting quarterback, and while it didn't matter much in week one, it will in week two. It was hard to truly grade Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski's performance as they evenly split carries, but Brown earned the slight edge.
Iowa State's offense is also navigating issues with new players across the board, but they don't have a starting quarterback dilemma. If Brown and/or Hecklinski struggle, Iowa could be in a little trouble, but luckily for them, Iowa State's defense struggled at times against SEMO. Iowa also has a far superior offensive line, which they'll lean heavily on to get the job done. Iowa's defense is also much better, and they need it to step up. Iowa might have the better team on paper, but games aren't won on paper. Iowa is the better team in this game, but Iowa State is looking for a signature win to start the season.
Iowa State will play freely, knowing they aren't expected to win, and Iowa can't be play tight or conservatively and let them hang around. The best way for Iowa to silence any doubt is to lean on them early, and not let up. The game likely won't be a two-touchdown win, but if the Hawkeyes play the way they should, they can cruise to victory.
Two early keys to guarantee a Hawkeye victory
We all know you can't buy into any pregame odds in a rivalry game, especially this one, and the 13.5-point spread is deceiving. Iowa State will look to throw an early punch and wobble Iowa, which they can't let happen. The two biggest ways to accomplish that are to run the ball down their throats and contain Jaylen Raynor.
Raynor wasn't very efficient passing against SEMO, completing 8/16 passes, but he is dangerous when he uses his legs. He rushed seven times for 32 yards and two touchdowns, proving he is a very capable runner. With Iowa State's running back room depleted due to injuries, the Cyclones will look to use Raynor's running ability to keep the Iowa defense off-balance. If the Hawkeyes can contain Raynor on the outside and force him to pass, they will be in great shape.
Iowa's rushing attack also proved it can carry the offense, racking up 289 yards and two touchdowns. Kamari Moulton led the backfield with 183 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns last weekend, and he could be heavily relied upon in week two. Without backup L.J. Phillips Jr. this week, Moulton is an even more important player. Iowa has a deep running back room, but Moulton will be the focus, and they need to get him going early. No one is asking Moulton to rush for nearly 200 yards again, but the offense goes as the running game goes, and Iowa needs to impose its will on the ground early and often.
If Iowa contains Raynor's legs and gets the running game going early, they have a good chance to cruise to victory.
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