Iowa moved to No. 15 overall in the recent College Football Playoff rankings, making every game important for the remainder of the season.
The CFP Committee has taken a lot of heat for alleged SEC bias, and although the Hawkeyes could easily be ranked higher, they control their destiny. At No. 15, the Hawkeyes are currently projected to be one of the first four teams out of the CFP, as only the top 12 make the field. Nothing matters if Iowa doesn't take care of business against Purdue, and it starts and ends with the hogmolies up front on the offensive line. The Hawkeyes can't afford any more slip-ups, and we have three keys for a much-needed win.
No. 1: Establish the running game early and often
You could easily say this about Iowa every week, but it doesn't make it any less true. Iowa's offense thrives when the ground game is working, and we have seen what happens when they can't get a push up front. The offensive line has been better over the last few weeks and has been named as Joe Moore Award semifinalists. After some questionable rushing performances against Iowa State, Michigan, and Ohio State, Iowa's rushing attack exploded against Washington, before taking a step back against Minnesota.
Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, starting running back Kamari Moulton is out for the season, but the running back group is extremely talented. L.J. Phillips Jr. paved the way to offensive success against Northwestern in Week 10, tallying 128 rushing yards, and the offense needs a similar performance this weekend against a suspect Purdue defense. Phillips Jr. has clearly shaken off earlier injuries and inconsistencies, and he could lead the backfield again.
Establishing the run game also helps Iowa's passing game, especially with Hank Brown under center. Brown has been inconsistent through the air this season, but has excelled in play-action. If the Hawkeyes can eat up yards on the ground, Tony Diaz and DJ Vonnahme become even more dangerous on the outside. Purdue's defense has been reeling over the last three weeks, giving Iowa a golden opportunity to put up some points.
No. 2: Win the turnover battle and stop giving it away on offense
Iowa has been bitten by the turnover bug lately, turning it over four times against Minnesota and twice against Northwestern, and that can't continue. Purdue's defense hasn't stopped anyone lately, but their sneaky-good offense can capitalize on mistakes. The Boilermakers have scored 26, 17, and 29 points over the past three games, and Iowa doesn't need to help them by coughing up the ball. Luckily for the Hawkeyes, the special teams have been elite this season, including another return touchdown by Braeden Jackson last weekend.
Brown's costly interception and Tony Diaz's fumble luckily didn't come back to haunt them, but without the return touchdown, Iowa would have narrowly escaped with a 17-10 win. Thankfully, it didn't happen that way, but Iowa can't afford to continue coughing the ball up. Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne has been turnover-prone throughout his career, and although he has been better this season, he has 19 career interceptions in four years. If the Hawkeyes can limit the running game and force Browne to make off-time throws, the defense could add a few turnovers to its total.
The offense is far more worrisome than the defense, and they must play mistake-free football to ensure a win.
No. 3: Put the game away early and don't let Purdue hang around
If Iowa wants to be taken seriously as a CFP-caliber program, they can't let bad teams hang around. Purdue is a 17.5-point underdog in this game, and they would like nothing more than to derail Iowa's CFP plans with a massive upset win. Playing on the road won't be easy after changing travel plans, but Purdue has nothing to lose. Iowa can't afford to look past them to Illinois or even further to Nebraska, or they could be in trouble. Before losing three straight, Purdue earned solid wins over Illinois and Minnesota, the same Minnesota team that beat Iowa a few weeks ago.
It would put everyone's mind at ease if the Hawkeyes got ahead early and put the game out of reach, and they have the means to do it. Iowa's defense has been stellar again this season, and although the offense has been a headache at times, it has shown flashes of brilliance. If Hank Brown has a similar game to the one he had against Wisconsin and the running game gets going early, the Hawkeyes are in great shape. The defense shut out Northwestern in the first half before giving up 10 points in the second half, and they have a good chance to improve on that this week. Purdue's offense is better than an Aidan Chiles-less Northwestern offense, but that doesn't mean Iowa won't do the job.
If Iowa's offense can put up a few early scores and the defense keeps dominating, Iowa shouldn't have any trouble winning this game. Every game matters until the end of the regular season, and the Hawkeyes can't be tripped up by a Purdue team they should beat.
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