Iowa got the job done in Week 10 with a 24-10 road win against Northwestern and is back home for a pivotal Week 11 matchup.
The Hawkeyes squeaked by the Wildcats with an average offensive performance, and they can't afford to let the Boilermakers hang around this week. The Iowa defense held the Wildcats to 286 total yards, and they will have their hands full with a sneaky-good Purdue offense. The Boilermakers have been inconsistent on both ends this season, but they've averaged 29.5 points and 384.9 total yards per game. Iowa is a heavy favorite, but that doesn't mean they should take Purdue lightly.
Final spread, moneyline, and total for No. 15 Iowa vs. Purdue
Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Spread
- Iowa: -17.5 (-110)
- Purdue: + 17.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Iowa: -1,100
- Purdue: +720
Total
- Over: 47.5 (-110)
- Under: 47.5 (-110)
Final predictions
Purdue is reeling after three straight losses against Washington, Penn State, and Maryland, giving up over 30 points in all three games. Purdue might be struggling, but that doesn't mean they will lay down and hand Iowa this game. No one can forget Purdue's massive upset in 2021 over No. 2 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium, and the Hawkeyes can't afford to let that happen again. Iowa is a very different team than it was in 2021, but some similarities remain. Iowa still relies heavily on solid defense and running the ball, and that must continue against the Boilermakers.
Purdue's defense has been gashed over the last three weeks, especially on the ground, which works in Iowa's favor. Iowa will try to establish the run early and often, especially after a big game from L.J. Phillips Jr. against Northwestern (128 yards). Iowa has a deep running back room, and they will use it to move the ball downfield. Quarterback Hank Brown was good, not great, last weekend, but if Iowa establishes the run, he is very effective in the play-action passing game.
Iowa shouldn't have trouble moving the ball on the ground against Purdue's defense, giving the outside weapons a better chance to make big plays. Purdue will struggle to cover Tony Diaz and DJ Vonnahme, and Iowa will win this game comfortably. Phillips Jr. will rush for over 90 yards and a touchdown this week, and Diaz will find the end zone for the third straight week as the Hawkeyes hand the Boilermakers their fourth straight loss.
Final score: Iowa 31, Purdue 13
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