Iowa is entering the top-20 tilt against Michigan as slight underdogs, but the outcome won't reflect that.
The Hawkeyes are 4.5-point underdogs on the road against Michigan, but they have too much working in their favor for it to stay that way. Both teams will try to establish the run and lean on their defenses to set the tone early. Although Iowa hasn't been tested through the first three weeks, their top-rated defense and surprisingly good offense will prevail in week four, and we have three bold predictions about how that will happen.
Hank Brown throws for over 300 yards in his first start against Michigan
The Iowa offense has been the butt of jokes for the last decade, but this season feels different. Kirk Ferentz and the coaching staff were using a two-quarterback system through the first three games to decide who would win the starting job. Hank Brown ultimately beat out Jeremy Hecklinski, but neither quarterback built any momentum in the passing game. Despite both quarterbacks playing, the offense averaged 209.0 passing yards per game, which is drastically better than what we have seen in recent years.
Iowa is more well-rounded on offense this year, with very deep running back, wide receiver, and tight end groups. Michigan will load up against the run, forcing Brown to pass, and he will take advantage. Wide receiver Tony Diaz was adamant that they will get what they want against Michigan's man-to-man coverage, and while it won't be easy, Brown will exploit it. Diaz and Vonnahme will have big games, and Brown will throw for over 300 passing yards in an Iowa victory.
Brown will be extremely effective in the play-action passing game, getting the ball out quickly to his playmakers on the outside. Michigan is expecting Iowa to run the ball frequently, and they will take advantage of the Wolverines' aggressive approach to stopping the run. Iowa hasn't had a 300-plus-yard passer since Nate Stanley, and that changes in week four.
The Iowa defense stifles the run, holds Michigan under 200 total yards on offense
Iowa's defense hasn't been tested through the first three weeks, but they are a very good unit. The defense has been slightly better against the pass (ranked No. 5 overall) than the run (ranked No. 11 overall), but they are stellar in both areas. Through three games, the Iowa defense is allowing only 66.0 rushing yards per game and 110.7 passing yards per game, and something has to give on Saturday. Iowa's elite run defense will face its toughest challenge in week four, and they will rise to the occasion.
Bryce Hawthorne will have a big day on the defensive line, and Cam Buffington will put up another 10-plus tackle performance as the Hawkeyes completely shut down the running game. The defense will force Bryce Underwood to pass more, leading to a few turnovers. The defense will limit the Wolverines to 90 yards on the ground and under 200 total yards, while forcing a few turnovers in the win.
The spread might be 4.5 points, but Iowa wins by two scores
Michigan is a little too confident in its defense, which hasn't been tested, excluding Oklahoma in week two. The Wolverines' defense has kept the squad in all three games as the offense struggled, but they will be on the field a lot more when the Hawkeyes come to town. Iowa's defense is elite in all areas, and while it also hasn't been tested, it will be up for the challenge. Iowa is a drastically different opponent from Western Michigan and UTEP, and Michigan struggled offensively against them. They should have lost in week one, and UTEP was close at halftime (17-14) before Michigan's offense woke up in the second half.
Most Michigan fans will tell you they haven't played their best football yet, making them scary, but we aren't buying it. Iowa's defense will expose the offense and keep them in check, while its offense does enough to win the game. Michigan might be a 4.5-point favorite, but Iowa covers that and more. Iowa wins 24-10 as the defense shuts down their offense, and Iowa's offense has another solid outing as the program finally turns the corner on that side of the ball. The Hawkeyes will shock the CFB world, beating Michigan by two scores as they stop letting the Wolverines skate by.
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