Iowa hasn't been fully tested through the first three weeks of the season, but that will change in week four.
The Hawkeyes crushed Northern Illinois (40-0) and Northern Iowa (55-0) in weeks one and three, and also won a tight 16-13 game against Iowa State in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. With the non-conference schedule over, the Hawkeyes have a tough road test against No. 18 Michigan to start the Big Ten schedule. Playing on the road at the Big House is never easy, and the Hawkeyes are entering the game as slight underdogs.
Oddsmakers have Iowa as a slight underdog on the road at Michigan
Iowa has played extremely well on both sides of the ball through the first three weeks, setting up a top-20 clash at Michigan. Although the program was using a two-quarterback system, the running game performed so well that the offense didn't need the passing attack to set the world on fire. Through the first three games, Iowa averaged 268.0 rushing yards (No. 10 overall), 477 total yards of offense (No. 30 overall), and 37.0 points per game (No. 47 overall).
Iowa's defense also ranks No. 1 in college football, proving it has gotten it done on both sides of the ball. Everything has been going well for the Hawkeyes, but oddsmakers have them as slight underdogs in their first real test of the season.
The Iowa-Michigan line, per Draft Kings. pic.twitter.com/Xa7OSKq5m7
— Chad Leistikow🆑 (@ChadLeistikow) September 20, 2026
No matter where you look for pregame odds for Iowa-Michigan, the Hawkeyes are slight underdogs. DraftKings' early odds have them as a 4.5-point dog, but the line will likely shift before kickoff. The tight spread suggests oddsmakers expect a close game. Iowa has looked better on both sides of the ball, but Michigan is Michigan, and will improve as the season goes on. Michigan mirrors Iowa on both sides of the ball, relying on a stout defense and stellar running game to win. Iowa has shown a better passing attack through its first three games, but we haven't gotten a clear picture of what it can do.
Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski had been fighting for the starting quarterback job, but Brown earned the QB1 spot after another solid game against Northern Iowa. Brown was more efficient, but he really only played one full game as the starter. It will be interesting to see if the playbook stays the same with Brown locked in as the starter, especially in the passing game. It wouldn't be surprising if Tim Lester leans on the run even more, taking some of the pressure off Brown in his first career start in Ann Arbor. Iowa has to run the ball effectively and stop the run on defense if it wants to stand a chance against Michigan, and it has all the tools to do it.
With a close game projected, Iowa must do what it does best to knock off Michigan
Iowa could have a slight advantage over Michigan because the Wolverines are still searching for their offensive identity, and they are catching them early in the season. Kyle Wittingham hasn't seemed fully committed to quarterback Bryce Underwood, especially after a controversial week-one win over Western Michigan, but their offense has done enough in their three wins. Their offense has been far from impressive, ranking No. 118 overall in total offense through the first three games, and Iowa can take advantage of that.
Iowa has the No.1-ranked defense and excels at stopping the run, something it must do against Michigan. The Wolverines' passing attack has been pitiful to start the season, and if the Hawkeyes can slow the run and force them to throw more, they have a good chance of winning. Bryce Underwood is the X-factor for the Wolverines' offense with his running ability, but if the Hawkeyes can pressure him early and get some hits on him, they will make him think twice.
It wouldn't be a surprise if Phil Parker puts more defenders in the box and sends more pressure this week to throw off Underwood's timing and comfort. This game will be won in the trenches, and Iowa has to do what it does best: stop the run. Stopping the run is half the battle, and the Hawkeyes must also run the ball effectively to come out on top. Iowa State might have revealed the formula for stopping Iowa's potent rushing attack, and if the offensive line can't get a push up front, Brown will be forced to throw more. He has been effective, but we have only seen him put the ball in the air more than 20 times once this season, when he attempted 30 passes against Iowa State.
Brown has been extremely effective on play-action passes, which are the most effective when the defense is threatened by the running game. If Iowa runs and defends the run well, they have a great chance of winning this game.
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