Iowa football: Hawkeye bowl game projection through week 10
By Andrew Wade
With four games remaining, here’s a breakdown of which bowl game the Iowa football program is most likely to participate in after the 2019 regular season.
After shutting out Northwestern, the Iowa football team reached the six-win mark required for teams to be bowl eligible. With four games remaining though, which bowl could the Hawks end up in?
Fortunately, we’ve got you covered here with a guide of which bowls could be on the table and what we think is most likely to happen.
Before we begin though, it’s important to get one thing out of the way. Each conference has bowl alliances and there are rules for which teams a bowl can take within those conferences. Moreover, the top bowls get the first pick of teams and it cascades down from there.
To sum it up for what this means for the Iowa football team, there is almost no chance they go to the Outback Bowl, TaxSlayer Bowl, or the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.
This leaves the College Football Playoffs, the Rose Bowl, a New Years Six Bowl, the Citrus Bowl, the Holiday Bowl, the Red Box Bowl, the Quick Lane Bowl, and the Armed Forces Bowl.
Unless something disastrous happens, the Hawks are more than likely not going to the Red Box Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl, or Armed Forces Bowl. Those are commonly reserved for the lower-level teams of the Big Ten, and even if the Hawkeyes struggle to an 8-4 finish, Hawkeye fans travel so well that the higher-priority bowls would still rather take the Hawks over other candidates. A great example of this is last year when Big Ten West winner Northwestern ended up at the Holiday Bowl as the Hawks jumped them for the Outback Bowl.
Iowa is also not going to the College Football Playoffs. Is it technically a possibility? Yes, but there would need to be some crazy things happening.
The Rose Bowl is still a possibility, but it would require the Hawks to win the Big Ten West and likely win the Big Ten Championship Game. The only way they don’t need to win the Big Ten Championship Game to make it in is if Ohio State gets into the College Football Playoff and Penn State somehow sneaks in as well or craps the bed the last few weeks of the season. I honestly don’t see any of the above scenarios happening so let’s just consider the Rose Bowl as pretty unlikely.
That leaves a New Years Six Bowl, the Citrus Bowl, and the Holiday Bowl. If the Iowa football team does win out but loses in the Big Ten Championship game, I see the Big Ten playing out like this. Ohio State in the College Football Playoffs, Penn State in the Rose Bowl, and the Hawks getting a New Years Six Bowl invite. I do think it’s actually a more probable scenario than most probably do, and you can read why right here.
However, let’s be real here. The Hawks are not going to be favored against Wisconsin, and if I was a betting man, I would put money on Iowa finishing 9-3 this season. Wisconsin will likely beat Minnesota as well, putting the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The same logic above for the New Years Six Bowl and the Rose Bowl applies to Wisconsin.
If Wisconsin gets into a New Years Six Bowl or the Rose Bowl, that likely means the Iowa football program is heading to the Citrus Bowl, who would rather not take Penn State, Michigan, or Minnesota. Considering Minnesota and Michigan are on track to finish roughly around the Hawks, this is good news for Iowa as they would get an edge simply due to the history of the bowl game.
If Wisconsin gets the Citrus Bowl, the Iowa football team would almost certainly be going to the Holiday Bowl, which they have been tied to for most of the last two seasons.
This is the most likely case at this point given my projected finish for the Hawks (9-3) and where I think the other Big Ten teams will stand. With the Holiday Bowl ending its tie with the Big Ten after this season, it would be pretty convenient timing for the Hawks to return to a bowl they haven’t been to since the Hayden Fry era.