Iowa football: FanDuel releases safe bet on Hawkeyes win total in 2019

FanDuel released it’s over/under win total and it had the Iowa football team with 8 wins as the line. That’s a pretty safe bet on their part.

The Iowa football team is like a low-risk, steady stock. They’re the perfect stock to invest in if you don’t want to worry about losing a lot of money. If six wins is the line between making money and losing money, the Hawkeyes almost always win money or at least break even in the Kirk Ferentz era.

The Hawks have won less than six games just three times in Kirk’s twenty years at the helm with two of those coming in his first two seasons in Iowa City.

There are also occasional moments of high volatility upwards. The Hawks have won ten or more games five times in the Kirk era, but like a good stock, they mostly just hover a little bit above the Mendoza line.

On paper, this Iowa football team could be incredible this year. They return a third-year starting quarterback in Nate Stanley who may have his faults but also has a significant amount of natural talent. Iowa has arguably the best offensive line in football with two potential first round picks protecting the edges and quite possibly the best overall player in football in AJ Epenesa lining up at the defensive end.

FanDuel didn’t fall for this trap though. There have been great Iowa teams in the past that failed to live up to expectations like the 2005, 2010, and 2016 Iowa football teams. In those seasons the Hawks finished with 7, 7, and 8 regular season wins.

To be fair, this year is a little different. Last season, the Hawkeyes had a ton of talent and got off to a hot start before struggling through the middle part of their schedule to finish the regular season 8-4 whereas those three aforementioned seasons above came after three of the best seasons in Kirk’s tenure.

So what does all of this mean?

Well, basically, FanDuel isn’t falling for the trap and the allure of the Hawks when setting the spread for their 2019 win total. They set the bar at 8 games and are putting the under at -136 and the over at +116. I’m not going to go into the what all of that means here, just google it if you want the full breakdown but basically, these numbers mean FanDuel thinks it’s more likely Iowa wins 7 games or less than winning 9 games or more. Not by much, but enough to set the line a little bit different than the over.

I don’t necessarily agree that Iowa has a better chance of winning 7 games or less, but I get where they are coming from considering the Hawks have a difficult schedule ahead of them, but the 8-game proposition is quite the safe bet.

Iowa has finished the regular season with eight wins three times while finishing within one game of eight (i.e. 7, 8, or 9) ten times.

Personally, I am buying into the hype of this year’s Hawkeyes, and I will be placing a bet on the over. Let’s go Hawks!