Iowa Basketball: Building A Realistic NCAA Tournament Résumé

A look at how the Iowa Hawkeyes can make the NCAA Tournament

Heading into conference play, Iowa basketball is 8-5 and tied for the second worst record in the Big Ten. Iowa, Michigan State and Penn State are the only teams ahead of the 6-6 Nebraska Cornhuskers, with the rest of the conference owning at least 10 wins.

While competing for another Big Ten title isn’t on many people’s mind when thinking about the Hawkeyes, there is still a small chance that Iowa’s young team continues to improve and somehow make it to the NCAA Tournament.

Sure, 8-5 is not an ideal record at this point of the season, but there are still 18 games left and four come against ranked teams. Therefore, especially with the way Iowa’s been playing on their five game winning streak, there is still an outside chance that the Hawkeyes are the surprise team of the Big Ten this year and are at least on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

That said, every game will be viewed as a potential résumé booster or destroyer. Iowa has a lot of ground to cover, so a loss to a bottom-dweller in the conference could prove to be detrimental.

Here’s a look at Iowa’s current résumé:

Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5)
Quality Wins: 25 Iowa State (78-64), Northern Iowa (69-46)
Bad Losses: Omaha (89-98)
Strength of Schedule: 166
Vs Potential Tourney Teams (Ranked): 2-4 (0-1; Virginia)

Right now, there’s no question Iowa would be on the outside looking in. Besides the fact that they’re 8-5 with a fairly easy schedule, their second best win — Northern Iowa — is 5-6. Plus, losing to Omaha, who lost to every other Power Five opponent this year, will hang over their heads the rest of the year.

It’s evident that Iowa has a lot of ground to cover. Adding more quality wins will be extremely helpful if they’re on the bubble, but Iowa can’t lose to Tournament-caliber teams anymore. Losing to Seton Hall and Memphis, even if at the beginning of the year, looks bad because it shows Iowa’s incapability of winning against good teams.

Losing by 34 to Virginia and 14 to Notre Dame don’t look good, either, however both have spent multiple weeks in the Associated Press top 25, so it’s not a huge blemish on Iowa’s résumé.

Still, beating ranked teams is how Iowa will help cover up their loss to Omaha. Beating good teams is a must, but beating great teams is what will get Iowa noticed nationally.

Last season, no team under .500 in Big Ten play made the NCAA Tournament. Northwestern went 12-2 in non-conference play, but an 8-10 conference record, which dropped them to 20-12 on the year, had the committee overlook them.

Even Ohio State, who went 11-7 in conference play and finished the year 20-13, only made the NIT. Michigan was the last team in from the Big Ten, as they made the First Four with a 10-8 conference record and 22-12 record overall.

Of course, Iowa will need to be multiple games over .500 this year since they enter conference play barely over .500. A 9-9 conference record would only put them at 17-14, which would mean they’d have to win the Big Ten Tournament.

Even an 11-7 record might not be enough, as Iowa would be 19-12 on the year. Although, that would give them a .613 winning percentage, which is better than Ohio State’s .606 last year but worse than Michigan’s .647.

It’s a different year and the Big Ten isn’t as strong, so there’s no way of telling how the committee will react to that. Although, considering Indiana made the NCAA Tournament at 20-13 in 2014-15, it seems that an 11-7 or 12-6 conference record would at the very least put Iowa on the bubble.

Here are the rest of Iowa’s games split into four tiers — Confident Win, Probably Win, On The Fence, Probably Loss, Confident Loss:

Confident Win: @Nebraska, Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State
Probably Win: @Rutgers
On The Fence: @Northwestern, @Illinois, Ohio State, @Minnesota, Illinois
Probably Loss: Michigan, Purdue, Maryland, @Michigan State, @Maryland
Confident Loss: @Purdue, Indiana, @Wisconsin

There are seemingly eight games Iowa will likely lose. That’s already one more than the most they could get, and it’s not counting the five games that could go either way. Even though it’s a long shot of Iowa making the NCAA Tournament, there is still a way.

The Hawkeyes have to win against Nebraska, Rutgers and Penn State. Rutgers is at an astonishing 11-2, but they haven’t played any great competition yet. They’ll likely come back down to earth in Big Ten play and be a very winnable game for the Hawkeyes.

That would put them at five wins, with a target of 11.

In the on the fence games, Iowa has to defend their home court. Iowa is 7-2 at home this year with their losses coming to Seton Hall and Omaha. Iowa had chances to come back against Seton Hall, but poor defense and free throw shooting hindered them. The Hawkeyes are a much better team, so winning at home against Ohio State and Illinois isn’t unreasonable.

Both Ohio State and Illinois have been inconsistent this year, and Iowa will have home-court advantage.

The last three on the fence games are all on the road. They’re all winnable on the road, but Iowa’s only true road game up to this point is a 14-point loss to Notre Dame. Therefore, it’s hard to tell how well they’ll play on the road this season. Besides, Minnesota, like Rutgers, is off to a fast 12-1 start but it could just be due to an easy non-conference schedule.