Iowa will travel to Champaign to take on the Fighting Illini on Tuesday, Feb. 25 at 8:00 p.m. central time. Illinois has won two straight games vs. the Hawkeyes and seven of the last 8 games in the series. Iowa is coming off an emotional win at home vs. Washington where the Hawkeyes got production from some unlikely sources.
This rivalry has been highly emotional over the years and Iowa will need to tap into that to leave Champaign with a win. The Illini are coming off a neutral site loss on Feb. 22, that saw Duke obliterate them at Madison Square Garden 110-67, with freshman phenom Cooper Flagg finishing the game with 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists in the contest.
Illinois will look to get right at home as they clash with the Hawkeyes on Tuesday night.
Key to victory No. 1: Get Dix, Sandfort going early
The Iowa Hawkeyes overcame a sluggish start against the Washington Huskies in their last game that saw them rally from nine points down to take a close contest. Payton Sandfort had a good game overall with 27 points and 9 rebounds, but he had a horrible first half only tallying 7 points on 3/9 shooting.
He surged in the second half, scoring 20 points, and the bench mob picked up the rest as the Hawkeyes got the W. Dix was equally slow to start, notching only four points in the first half, but hit some big shots down the stretch for Iowa and finished with 11 points.
Iowa's stars cannot afford to start slow against Illinois because the Illini are top-five in the Big 10 in opponent's field goal percentage (41.3% on the season) and when they engage on the defensive end, they can lock down their opponents.
It is imperative that Dix and Sandfort get their looks early so they can take some pressure off their teammates to score, because they do not always know where their points are coming from after the loss of leading scorer Owen Freeman.
Key to victory No. 2: Take, Make High Percentage Shots
Over their last 5 games, Iowa has shot 46 percent from the field and 36 percent from the three point line, but they will need to be even more efficient if they hope to get passed the Fighting Illini. In my opinion, with Illinois being a stingy defensive team, and a proficient rebounding team (tops in the Big 10)
Iowa will need to shoot closer to 50 percent from the floor and 38-39 percent from the three point line in this game to have a chance. They can't use their heavy rebound advantage if they are constantly taking the ball out of the net, so Iowa will need to jump on them early and make shots.
Key to victory No. 3: Continue to Limit Turnovers
I know I sound like a broken record, but when Iowa is efficient with the basketball and limits turnovers, they often find themselves in a good position late in games. The Hawkeyes lead the Big 10 in assists per game (18.5) and assist to turnover ratio (1.86) and will need to move the ball to the open shooters with high efficiency if they hope to stand a chance.
If Iowa can lock in on these 3 things, I feel they will stay in this game. However, I do think my previous prediction holds true, and the Hawkeyes take the L on Tuesday night.