ESPN nails Iowa's 2024 X-Factor

It's easy to say that the 2024 Iowa Hawkeyes will go as quarterback Cade McNamara goes. If he has a strong season, there is little standing in the Hawkeyes' way of a 10-win season and a shot at the playoffs. If he doesn't, the same frustrations of yesteryear will no doubt persist.

However, there's an over-arching variable to McNamara's performance. His new offensive coordinator, Tim Lester, also has to prove himself.

ESPN named the X-Factor for each top 25 program and they dubbed the honor/burden to Lester. It's hard to argue against the decision.

Lester spent last year with the Green Bay Packers as an analyst. The Packers had some dips and valleys, but overall, the young offense was graded as a success in its first season without Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre as the full-time starter in over 30 years.

How much Lester had to do with that success is largely undeterminable, but he surely made some sort of difference.

However, Lester also followed PJ Fleck at Western Michigan and failed to continue the success the people of Kalamazoo, Michigan, enjoyed during the Fleck years. Two years after having the 10th-best scoring offense in the country in 2020, Lester fielded the 119th-worst offense in 2022 and was relieved of his duties. Understandably, 2020 was a bit of an outlier as the Broncos' offensive production dipped considerably after his first year with the program in 2017.

It's understood that Lester is putting his spin on Kirk Ferentz's offense. In many ways that does handcuff the offense from taking flight like programs such as Alabama and Ohio State. But, with enough creativity, the goal should be to emulate the Michigan Wolverines in recent years. The ground and pound ideologies are relatively the same, even if the process is somewhat different.

Regardless, Lester is running the show, and as such, he largely determines how McNamara goes. An optimistic look at offseason quotes and notes would have many Hawkeye fans believe that the pairing is off to as strong a start as could be reasonably expected. But in the world of football, seeing is believing.

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