Low-scoring, defensive games are something Iowa traditionally does well, but that wasn't true against Minnesota.
The Hawkeyes turned the ball over four times and had a punt blocked, leading to a heartbreaking road loss. The defense played well enough for the team to win, but mistakes cost them. Iowa is normally on the other end of similar games, but they have another opportunity to prove it was just one game. Wisconsin comes to Kinnick Stadium riding high after a massive upset win over USC, and will look to recapture the Heartland Trophy for the first time in four years. Despite everything looking bleak for Iowa, they are somehow early favorites.
Oddsmakers are predicting a very low scoring slugfest in Iowa City in week nine
The Hawkeyes were 7.5-point favorites against the Golden Gophers and couldn't get it done. Iowa has traditionally played better as the underdog, but that doesn't excuse their performance last weekend. Despite a brutal loss and multiple things working against them, Iowa is again a slight favorite, setting up a path to redemption.
Iowa is favored by 3.5 points vs. Wisconsin (11am CT, FOX) on Saturday, with an over/under of 37.5.
— Chad Leistikow🆑 (@ChadLeistikow) October 26, 2026
No matter where you look, Iowa is a slight favorite, but the over/under differs. The over/under is set between 36.5 and 37.5 points, suggesting this game won't feature much scoring. Wisconsin has put points on the board this season, but with two strong defenses taking the field in week nine, that likely won't continue. Iowa will also struggle to score points thanks to a revolving door at quarterback and star running back Kamari Moulton out for the rest of the season. Any way you slice it, this game has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest, and that plays into Iowa's hands.
It's scary to think that Wisconsin's defense limited USC's high-powered offense to seven points, and they took advantage of a bad game from Heisman contender Jayden Maiava and a bad Trojans defense. Iowa's defense is exceptionally better than USC's, but its offense is much worse. Wisconsin's offense hasn't lit the world on fire, but it's done enough and hasn't beaten itself, something Iowa's offense can't claim. It doesn't matter that Iowa is favored; it hasn't proven it's better than Wisconsin, and it could easily go south.
Iowa usually has a defensive advantage, but without a strong running game, it will be an uphill battle. If Iowa wins, it will be because the defense forces multiple turnovers, or special teams pins Wisconsin deep, giving the offense good field position. Neither of those is out of the question, but the offense is a major concern. If they don't play mistake-free football and can't move the ball, the defense will get exhausted, and it could get out of hand. To overcome its offensive struggles, Brown has to be quick and efficient in the passing game, and the offensive line has to play better.
Iowa can't afford another poor game from its offensive line or rushing attack, or it will lose its second straight game. Oddsmakers are right that the over/under should be low, but naming Iowa as the favorite might be off the mark.
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