Early odds had the Hawkeyes as an underdog in their first Big Ten game of the season, and that hasn't changed much.
Iowa has been stellar through the first three weeks of the season, but faces one of its biggest tests in week four. The No. 18 Michigan Wolverines haven't looked convincing to start the season, but they are 3-0 and extremely difficult to play against at home in front of 100,000 screaming fans. Iowa has looked like the better team early, with Michigan still finding its stride. The Hawkeyes hope the Wolverines take another week to figure things out so they can knock them off to start the conference slate.
Final spread, moneyline, and total for No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan
Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Spread
- Iowa: +5.5 (-112)
- Michigan: -5.5 (-108)
Moneyline
- Iowa: +172
- Michigan: -210
Total
- Over: 38.5 (-110)
- Under: 38.5 (-110)
The odds have shifted slightly, with the over/under going down by a point, suggesting that oddsmakers expect a close game. Both teams will run the ball often and use physical defense to set the tone, making for a slugfest on Saturday afternoon. Both teams don't mind winning ugly, which is exactly what experts are predicting. Two of Michigan's first three games have been low-scoring, whereas Iowa has blown out two of its first three opponents. It will be a classic smashmouth Big Ten football game with little scoring and a lot of running and defense.
A few final predictions before Iowa and Michigan meet on the gridiron
These programs are mirror images, relying on smashmouth running and physical defense to overwhelm opponents, and doing just enough in the passing game. Both Iowa and Michigan have studs on the outside in Tony Diaz and JJ Buchanan, but neither team has faced an elite defense to this point. Iowa has looked more convincing on both sides of the ball, and even though they are slight underdogs in this game, their offense will be the difference.
It is strange to call Iowa's offense a difference-maker, but that is what they have shown through the first three weeks. Now that Hank Brown is locked in as the starting quarterback, the offense doesn't have to worry about two different signal callers lining up under center. Brown has been calm, calculated, and efficient during his split duties with Jeremy Hecklinski, but he's the guy, and he'll have to play like it against a stout Wolverines defense.
Both teams will load the box to make the other run, even though both want to establish the run early; this game will likely come down to who can make a few more plays in the passing game. Iowa's tight ends will play a big role, and they are more talented there. They are also deeper at running back and can take advantage of one of Michigan's top offensive linemen being hurt, as well as star running back Jordan Marshall. Iowa will have more luck running the ball and will hit a few more plays in the passing game, giving them the win. While Iowa likely won't blow Michigan's doors off, they will win this game.
Final score: Iowa 20, Michigan 13
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