It might always be pretty, but Iowa football gets results.
Iowa is often criticized for being stuck in the 1990s with their run-first offensive scheme and preference for smashmouth football, but it gets results. The program has been a consistent threat under Kirk Ferentz, and even though it may not have the money some Big Ten Conference blue-bloods do, it always competes at the highest level. In three games this season, Iowa has turned heads with its play on both sides of the ball, and they have the perfect chance to prove several national media members right on Saturday.
Three of four CBS Sports analysts picked the Hawkeyes to knock off the Wolverines
In past seasons, there was nearly a zero percent chance Iowa would be picked to go on the road and knock off a traditional Big Ten powerhouse, but that pick hasn't looked as strange this season. Iowa is on the road in Ann Arbor to face Michigan, a program they have struggled with in the past. The Wolverines have a 41-15-4 all-time record against Iowa, including a commanding 26-0 victory in the 2023 Big Ten Championship game. Iowa is a drastically different team than it was three years ago, and it's ready to show the world it belongs.
Iowa has been surprisingly good on offense while maintaining its dominant defense, leading multiple experts to pick the Hawkeyes to win in week four.
Who will win between Iowa and Michigan? 🤔@CoachBrianKelly, @JonesN4mo, @CoachNeuheisel and @AaronTaylorCFB give their picks for this ranked Week 4 matchup.#ICF pic.twitter.com/k0fwvJMlDG
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 23, 2026
Iowa's defense under Phil Parker was a major selling point for the panel of CBS Sports college football analysts, leading three of four to pick the Hawkeyes to win. The analysts are concerned with Michigan's poor run game, with quarterback Bryce Underwood leading the team in rushing. Iowa has the top-ranked defense in the Big Ten and currently the No. 1 overall defense in college football, and many worry that Michigan won't be able to run the ball against Iowa's stout run defense. Although the Iowa defense hasn't faced any significant threats through the first three games, Iowa has held its opponents to an average of 66.0 rushing yards per game.
Michigan has struggled to run the ball effectively through the first three weeks of the season, which is odd for the Wolverines offense that focuses on establishing the run. If the Wolverines offense thought it was hard to run the ball in the first three weeks, they are in for a rude awakening against an extremely stingy Iowa defense. A key to Iowa's success in this game is shutting down the run, something that Western Michigan and Oklahoma did in weeks one and two. Bryce Underwood has led the rushing attack in two of the three games, rushing for 47 yards in week one and 87 in week two, leading the team overall with 156 total rushing yards.
Iowa has been known to struggle with mobile quarterbacks in the past, but they are better prepared this season after facing Jayeln Raynor and Iowa State, and have more athletes on the outside than before. Iowa also has an advantage knowing that Michigan wants to run the ball, and they can stack the box to contain Underwood and the rushing attack. Another advantage is that star offensive lineman Andrew Sprague is questionable for the game, and running back Jordan Marshall is also coming off an injury.
It wouldn't be surprising if Iowa loads the box, forcing Underwood to beat them through the air, which is exactly what the Michigan defense will do to them.
If Iowa stops the run, they win. Period.
This game has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest, with both teams pounding the rock on offense and loading up to stop the run on defense. Through the first three games, Hank Brown has been slightly better through the air, and could've put up even bigger numbers if the coaching staff wasn't using two quarterbacks. Hank Brown ultimately won the starting job, but this is easily the biggest test he has faced this season. Iowa has a distinct advantage in the running game, and if they can contain Underwood and plug up the middle on defense, they will win this game.
None of Michigan's early opponents were defensive juggernauts, and the Wolverines' offense still struggled to run the ball. If they can't run the ball and start as sluggishly as they have for all three games, Iowa won't be as forgiving as Western Michigan (which they should've lost), Oklahoma, and UTEP. Phil Parker is widely considered one of the top defensive minds in college football, and the Hawkeyes will be prepared to stop the run.
Although this game will likely be close, a scenario exists where Iowa stops the run and has success on offense, leading to a lopsided victory. The blueprint for Iowa's victory is in front of them, and if they can contain the running game, they are in great shape.
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