Iowa has traditionally played its best football in the second half of the season, and that starts with an important trophy game.
The Hawkeyes knocked off Washington on the road in week six before a bye week, and looked good on both sides of the ball. The offense was humming, and the defense was stifling in the 41-24 win over the Huskies, and the squad has another golden opportunity to get even closer to its first College Football Playoff appearance. Although Minnesota dropped an inexcusable game to Purdue in week six, this rivalry game is never easy, and the oddsmakers feel the same.
Oddsmakers suggest Iowa-Minnesota will be a close, low-scoring game
As the weather gets colder, Big Ten action heats up. The Hawkeyes face a tough road test to start the second half of their schedule, and beating Minnesota won't be easy, with a program and head coach that know them very well. PJ Fleck hasn't had much success against the Hawkeyes, but aside from a dud against Purdue, have played well this season. Although Iowa played well in the win over Washington, oddsmakers don't believe it will be as easy against the Golden Gophers.
FanDuel has Iowa as an early 6.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 40.5 points. That suggests a low-scoring Iowa win, and they will try to do it with newly named starter Jeremy Hecklinski. A road game with a new starter could explain the low totals, but Iowa has the pieces to play well on both sides of the ball, and attacking Minnesota's defense on the ground will be the key. Hecklinski has been touching the Floyd of Rosedale trophy before every practice and will be ready to go. The defense should also be fired up after a solid week-six performance and with Floyd on the line.
Iowa has several things working in its favor to blow the spread and total out of the water
It was slightly odd that Kirk Ferentz named Jeremy Hecklinski as the starting quarterback without prompting, but it shows the program's confidence in him. Hecklinski performed well in the Ohio State game and in his first career start against Washington, earning him another start. Hecklinski has the confidence to succeed, but he will need the rushing attack to have another solid performance. Kamari Moulton will lead the backfield again, and he could easily have a field day against a porous Minnesota defense.
The Golden Gophers' run defense has been among the conference's worst, and Iowa loves to establish the run early. Moulton is fully healthy and ready to go, and L.J. Phillips recently said he is feeling much better after tweaking his ankle late against Washington. With a two-headed monster at running back, plus Xavier Williams, Nathan McNeil, and Braeden Jackson waiting in the wings, the Hawkeyes should have a great game on the ground.
If the offense establishes the ground game early, it will open up the outside for Hecklinski and the passing attack. If Iowa can establish the run and stop it on defense, it will be in great shape. Purdue gashed Minnesota for over 300 rushing yards, and Iowa has a better running back room. It wouldn't be surprising if Iowa runs for over 250 yards and wins easily.
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