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A midseason bowl projection completely missed the mark on Iowa's landing spot

One projection has the Hawkeyes in a bowl game against a familiar opponent
ByJordan Underwood
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Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Reece Vander Zee (2) catches a pass from Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski (10) during a Big Ten college football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes Oct. 3, 2026 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.
Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver Reece Vander Zee (2) catches a pass from Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski (10) during a Big Ten college football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes Oct. 3, 2026 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Iowa has started hot, and has generated a ton of buzz heading into the second half of the season.

With Iowa on a bye in week seven, everyone has time to reflect, and expectations for the program are growing. The season is far from over, but Iowa has built a solid case to make its first College Football Playoff appearance. After a tough stretch early in the schedule, Iowa's second half is set up for success, with only one team left that's currently ranked. Despite all the optimism around the program, one projection isn't buying it.

One projection has Iowa once again falling short of the College Football Playoff

Iowa's final six regular-season games aren't a layup, especially with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Northwestern all playing better than expected. The Hawkeyes still have three trophies to play for against Minnesota (Floyd of Rosedale), Wisconsin (The Heartland), and Nebraska (The Heroes), and they travel to Evanston to take on a surging Northwestern squad. Nothing is guaranteed, but it is attainable, though one projection isn't bullish on the Hawkeyes earning their first CFP berth.

According to On3 Sports' Brett McMurphy, the Hawkeyes will miss the College Football Playoff and face Kentucky in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl. McMurphy did not provide win totals for any teams in his projections, but he suggests Iowa will stumble more than once this season. The Hawkeyes have played extremely well in trophy games and have dominated against Minnesota and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes have won nine of their last 10 against Minnesota and Nebraska, and are 23-7 against all three combined. If that trend continues, McMurphy believes that Iowa will drop at least one game to Northwestern, Purdue, or Illinois.

However you look at it, Iowa's path to the CFP is clearer than ever, and McMurphy isn't giving Iowa the credit they deserve. He didn't explain his projections, so we can only speculate based on the provided information. Iowa plays better in the latter part of the season, and an easier second-half schedule paves the way to a CFP berth. Making a bowl game is well and good, but Iowa has been on the outside looking in on the CFP field, and it's time they check it off the list. They control their own destiny, but can realistically afford only one more loss if they want to make the field.

The biggest potential pitfalls are the three remaining trophy games and a resurgent Northwestern squad at home, but if Iowa plays the way everyone knows they can, they can win out. Iowa hasn't played its best football, but it's still ranked in the top 25 in overall defense (No. 24), and the offense has shown flashes of what it's capable of. If the coaching staff irons out the starting quarterback situation, finds more consistency, and gets the running game going, the unit has the weapons to surprise teams. Midseason bowl projections are always difficult, especially with half the season remaining, and even though they are subjective, McMurphy's projections miss the mark.

An 11-1 Iowa team easily makes the field, but a 10-2 or worse Iowa team makes it much more difficult with its current strenght of schedule.

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