Iowa Football: Expect a low scoring game against Wisconsin

It could be a slow day for both offenses when Iowa football hosts the Wisconsin Badgers this weekend.

Two stingy defenses combined with two inexperienced quarterbacks prone to turnovers could equal a low final score between the No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2) and Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.

There’s a reason the over/under for this game is set at just 41.5 points as of Thursday evening.

The Hawkeyes boast one of college football’s toughest defensive units in 2020, having allowed 24 points or fewer in 21 straight games. Overall, Iowa allows just 17.3 points per game (14th in FBS).

Led by their stout defensive line, which includes the likes of Daviyon Nixon, Chauncey Golston, Jack Heflin and Zach VanValkenburg, Iowa ranks 15th in total defense (326.4 yards per game). The Hawkeyes have been one of the toughest teams to move the ball on this season.

But the Badgers have been arguably better through four contests. Wisconsin has yet to allow more than 17 points in any game and allows the fewest total yards in all of college football (229.2 yards per game). Bucky ranks second in points given up (12.3 per game).

The Hawkeyes have relied on their running game all year, but could be forced to rely heavily on sophomore quarterback Spencer Petras on Saturday. Wisconsin allows just 72.2 rushing yards per game (first in FBS). Petras has struggled to read defenses, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Badgers put the majority of their focus on stopping the run, thus forcing Iowa’s to switch to the pass game.

Running back Tyler Goodson has been a workhorse for Iowa’s offense all season. Goodson, a true sophomore, ranks second in the Big Ten in rushing with 656 yards. He’s averaging 94 yards per game, five yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns.

If the Hawkeyes aren’t able to establish the run, it’ll be interesting to see how much freedom offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz gives Petras. Iowa’s signal caller had his best game of the season last week against Illinois, but has only thrown for multiple touchdowns once this season. He’s thrown seven touchdowns against five interceptions.

Iowa isn’t the only team with a young inexperienced quarterback, though. Redshirt freshman Graham Mertz had a spectacular debut against Illinois, but has since been below average for the Badgers.

Since throwing five touchdowns against the Illini in Wisconsin’s season-opener, Mertz has thrown just four scores and has four interceptions over three games. He’s also completed just 56.7 percent of his passes during that span.

Two struggling quarterbacks mixed with two stout run defenses means points will be at a premium in this game. Could we see another outcome like 2015, when the Hawkeyes defeated Wisconsin, 10-6?