Iowa Basketball: Preview and prediction against North Carolina

Iowa basketball hosts North Carolina on Tuesday, Dec. 7. Here’s a preview and prediction for the Hawkeyes-Tarheels matchup.

The No. 3 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0) face the 16th ranked North Carolina Tarheels (3-1) on Tuesday night at Carver-Hawkeye Arena as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:35 pm CT on ESPN.

The Hawkeyes face their first tough opponent after facing mid-major schools in their first three games. Iowa is currently a 4.5-point favorite as of Monday evening. The over/under is set at 155.5 points.

Iowa has outscored opponents 299-201 so far this season. The Hawkeyes average just under 100 points per game (99.7) and are holding opponents to 67 points per game. On the other side, UNC averages 72.8 points per game and is giving up 60.1 points.

Perhaps the biggest factor in this game will be whether UNC can knock down some 3-pointers. The Tarheels are shooting just 27 percent behind the arc this season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are averaging 39 percent from downtown. Iowa also holds a significant advantage from the free throw line (76 percent vs. 65 percent).

The biggest question entering this game: who will guard Luka Garza? Iowa’s standout big man has had back-to-back games with 30 points in the first half.  Garza is averaging 34.0 points and 9.7 rebounds on 76 percent shooting.

“He’s really good. That’s the first thought,” said North Carolina coach Roy Williams on Monday regarding Garza. “He’s a guy that just got better and better and better every year. I think he’s grown some since he got to the college level.”

Prediction: Iowa 80, North Carolina 72

The Hawkeyes are going to put up points, but expecting them to score 97 or more every game is wishful thinking. Iowa has hit that mark every game this season, but it’s come against weak competition. This will be a great test for Iowa offensively, as the Tarheels rank high in several defensive metrics.