Iowa Football: Here’s how the Hawkeyes can still win the Big Ten West

Yes, it’s mathematically possible. Here’s how Iowa football can win the Big Ten West with just four games remaining.

Iowa football got off to the worst start they could have hoped for to begin the 2020 college football season. The Hawkeyes lost by a combined five points to Purdue and Northwestern in their opening two games, but followed those up with two successive blowout victories over Michigan State and Minnesota. Yet, even with a record of 2-2, Iowa still has a slim chance of winning the Big Ten West.

The Hawkeyes travel to Penn State (0-4) on Saturday, with games against Nebraska (1-2), Illinois (1-3) and Wisconsin (2-0) left on the schedule. The combined record of Iowa’s remaining opponents is 4-9. Wisconsin is the team’s only remaining opponent with a winning record.

Current Big Ten West standings:

1. Northwestern (4-0)
2. Wisconsin (2-0)
3. Purdue (2-1)
4. Iowa (2-2)
5. Nebraska (1-2)
6. Illinois (1-3)
7. Minnesota (1-3)

So how can the Hawkeyes’ win the Big Ten West? For starters, they need to win out. Every remaining game is a must-win. A final record of 6-2 is the best Iowa can end with, meaning they need Purdue to lose at least one more game, Wisconsin to lose twice, and Northwestern to lose three times.

Note: In this scenario, Purdue would finish 5-2, Wisconsin 4-2, and Northwestern 5-3. Remember, Iowa needs to finish 6-2 for all of this to work. This also assumes no future games are canceled due to COVID-19.

Iowa would own the tiebreaker over Wisconsin by defeating the Badgers head-to-head. Wisconsin would also have two fewer wins than the Hawkeyes. Still, Iowa needs Wisconsin to lose at least twice. A record of 5-1 for the Badgers does Iowa no good.

Additionally, Iowa would have a slightly better winning percentage than Purdue, even though the Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes head-to-head earlier this season. Both teams would end with two losses, but Iowa’s winning percentage would be .750 (6-2), while Purdue’s would be .714 (5-2).

Northwestern needs to lose at least three games, because Iowa lost to them earlier this season. If the Hawkeyes finished with the same record as the Wildcats at 6-2, Northwestern would own the tiebreaker.

The combined record of Wisconsin’s remaining opponents is 11-4. For Purdue, their remaining opponents have a combined record of 7-8. Northwestern’s opponents’ combined record is 5-10. It’s also important to note that Wisconsin and Northwestern play each other Saturday, guaranteeing a loss for one.

The likelihood of all of this happening is admittedly slim, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. With the way the Hawkeyes have looked in their last two games, it’s not a stretch to think Iowa could win their final four contests. They’ll just need a little help along the way.