Iowa football: Don’t buy into Tristan Wirfs and AJ Epenesa draft speculation

Yesterday Pro Football Talk reported that sources believe Tristan Wirfs and AJ Epenesa would return to the Iowa football team. I’m not buying it yet.

Yesterday was senior day at Kinnick Stadium meaning we will never see Nate Stanley or Michael Ojemudia or Kristian Welch suit up in an Iowa football uniform and play a game there again. It also very well could have been the last time we see Tristan Wirfs or AJ Epenesa play an Iowa football game at Kinnick too.

But not according to Tony Pauline, a draft analyst at Pro Football Talk. According to Pauline, sources within the program believe both players will stay.

While I am certainly not in a position to refute what he is reporting considering I don’t know his sources nor do I actually think his sources are wrong, let’s slow down a bit.

Here’s what Pauline had to say before we jump into the analysis:

"Sources close to the program tell me they still believe Tristan Wirfs will return to school after the season, despite being graded as a top half of round one prospect. I’m told the situation is similar for A.J. Epenesa."

He also went on to say that the Iowa football team has done a good job of keeping underclassmen in the past and that AJ Epenesa was not having a good season.

So let’s break this down.

We have one regular-season game left and then a postseason bowl game, which is looking more and more like it will be the Holiday Bowl. At that point, my guess is both top-rated prospects will take a hard look at their draft prospects before making a decision.

Heck, AJ Epenesa even said as much in an interview yesterday.

That’s a big first step. They clearly love being Iowa football players and being a part of the program as an injury in a bowl game could significantly impact their draft stock. And unlike other guys on the team who theoretically could declare early, these two are widely projected to go in the top half of the first round by all measures (except for in Pauline’s mock draft apparently). So the information is there before the bowl. They likely have an idea already about where they are projected.

This is relevant because, again, it means they are more on the edge of staying versus going than we’ve seen in the past with a guy like Noah Fant.

Now to a few of his other points. The Iowa football team has not done a great job of retaining underclassmen. Yes, Desmond King returned (and that was amazing), but he’s been the exception, not the rule as of late. But Iowa has had six guys leave early in the past two years. Outside of those six, just one other Iowa football was drafted and that was Josey Jewell.

And as far as AJ Epenesa not having a good season, that’s just not true. He hasn’t put up the statistical numbers (until recently) that caused some hesitation from the draft community, but in every mock draft I have seen or heard, Epenesa has been in the first round and usually between picks 10-20.

Yes, he’s not lighting the world on fire like Chase Young, but Epenesa is in a vastly different situation and to just grade the two based on production is unintelligent scouting.

So what do I think happens?

Honestly, I think they both go. I think they both clearly love the Iowa football program, and that’s probably why the above sources said what they said, but we saw this happen last year with TJ Hockenson. At a certain point, you have to be logical and go to the NFL.

Say what you want, but that’s the ultimate goal here.

Now, if they feel that strongly about returning, they could take out an insurance policy covering injury, which would reduce the risk associated with returning, but neither stands to gain significantly more ground by returning to school. That being said, we’re going to see lots of reports like this come out over the next two months, and we will try to keep up with it as much as we can, but it’s important to remember, that until it’s official, it’s all just speculation that likely isn’t coming from Wirfs or Epenesa.