The Iowa football team failed to win on the road in a game with national implications, but history indicates that the Hawkeyes are still in contention.
The Iowa football team lost a game that most fans tallied as a loss before the season started. Obviously, seeing Wisconsin run all over the Wolverines have changed our perceptions of Michigan.
However, two of the last three winners of the West have lost to Michigan (Northwestern lost to Michigan at home last year). This loss alone will not halt the Iowa football team’s ambitions of winning the Big Ten
I wrote an article earlier this year that asserted the importance of at least winning one crossover game between Michigan and Penn State. If Iowa wins out, which would include a win against the Nittany Lions, the Hawkeyes are going to Indianapolis.
The game that has historically defined whether Iowa’s season is special has been Wisconsin, not Michigan. In 2004, Iowa began the season 2-2 with back-to-back roads losses to Arizona State, then Michigan.
When Iowa lost to Michigan in 2004, the Hawkeyes did not play prototypical Iowa football. Iowa lost the turnover battle 5-2 and ended the game with negative rushing yards. This sounds somewhat familiar, doesn’t it?
Of course, 2004 is the most recent year that the Iowa football team has won a Big Ten title.
The Big Ten title is still in reach. A crossover loss does not eliminate a team from Big Ten contention. In fact, the last two Big Ten Champions have one loss to a team in the other B1G division.
The second part of this equation is where this loss leaves Iowa football regarding the College Football Playoff (CFP). The CFP is a bit less predictable, as the variables involved in picking the participants are much more subjective than the Big Ten Championship Game.
However, history is still in Iowa football’s favor when considering previous playoff teams. Last season was the first CFP to feature three undefeated teams. The one team with one loss was Oklahoma, who lost a one-score game to Texas on a neutral field.
Oklahoma ‘avenged’ this loss by beating Texas in the conference championship game.
In 2017, the CFP featured all four teams with losses – Clemson (lost 27-24 at Syracuse), Oklahoma (lost 38-31 at home to Iowa State, Georgia (lost 40-17 at Auburn), Alabama (lost 26-14 at Auburn).
For those within the Iowa football fan base concerned that Michigan isn’t as good as their ranking states, remember that Syracuse finished the season 4-8 in 2017.
I could keep going back and pointing to the fact that most CFP teams lose one game, but I am sure you all get the point by now. One loss does not eliminate Iowa from the playoff.
In fact, a win at home against Penn State puts Iowa right back into the conversation. Like Georgia in 2017, Michigan will almost certainly need to avenge their loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game to get into the playoff.
Iowa football, however, has more control over its own destiny. A one-score loss on the road to a ranked opponent in front of 111,000+ hostile fans is not an eliminator.
It’s a respectable enough outcome where Iowa simply needs to win out to be in the CFP. In fact, according to fivethirtyeight.com’s playoff predictor, Iowa would have a 92% chance to make the CFP if they were to win the rest of their games.
I was at the Big House to experience the anemic performance by our offense with a group of Wolverine in-laws. I share in the frustration that many of my fellow Iowa football fans had after Saturday’s game.
However, the season is not over, despite the immediate feelings after Saturday’s game. There is not a single goal that Iowa football can no longer achieve this year.
Win against Penn State and Iowa football is back on track.