Iowa basketball: Hawks need to get back to basics vs Michigan

The Iowa basketball team, losers of two straight games, take on the #5 Michigan Wolverines tomorrow evening at Carver Hawkeye Arena.

To be clear, you’re not going to find me predicting a win by the Iowa basketball team in this preview of tomorrow night’s big game, but I do believe there is a chance that the Hawks could upset the #5 Michigan Wolverines. That is, if they play fundamentally sound basketball and bring the intensity that they did against Michigan State, and if they play any semblance of defense.

It will not be easy though.

The 20-1 Wolverines are positioning themselves for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and they feature an incredibly stingy defense.

While their offense is averaging just 71.4 points per game (233rd in the nation), they are a relatively efficient unit, shooting 45% from the field and 35% from three-point. Their offensive adjusted efficiency rating, however, is 29th according to KenPom. Their scoring attack is led by 6’7” freshman Ignas Brazdeikis, who is averaging 15.1 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. Behind him are two other wings, 6’6” Charles Matthews (12.9 ppg and 5.2 rpg) and 6’5” Jordan Poole (12.7 ppg and 3.1 rpg). Their starting lineup is rounded by with point guard Zavier Simpson (8.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and 5.9 apg) and a center who makes Luka Garza small, 7’1” junior Jon Teske.

This offensive attack is well-rounded with relatively equal reliance on twos and threes, and they like to keep the ball late into the clock (they are 283rd in average possession length). The one weakness (if there is one to actually point out) is that they don’t get to the line with much frequency. In fact, they are 251st in the NCAA in total free throw attempts, and they are 10th in the Big Ten in free throw shooting percentage.

This provides an ideal opportunity for the Iowa basketball team to get back on track defensively as long as they don’t stay committed to their inadequate man defense for too long of stretches.

On the flip side, the Iowa basketball team’s strength (offense) will be going toe to toe with Michigan’s strength (defense). The Wolverine’s defensive unit is allowing the second fewest points in the country (56.1), and their defensive adjusted efficiency is 1st in the nation according to KenPom. Relying primarily on man to man defense, this team does a great job of stopping three-point shooting teams, and unlike other man to man teams, Michigan is not as susceptible to foul trouble as other units. Quite the opposite actually. This team is the 5th best team in the nation in not committing fouls averaging just 14.

This bodes well for the Wolverines as they don’t dig deep into their bench unit (just seven guys average more than 4.5 minutes per game). The Wolverines, however, have not faced a team like the Iowa basketball team that relies on relentless attacking in the post with Tyler Cook and Luka Garza to create pressure on the defense and force the opposing teams into foul trouble.

With Michigan’s emphasis on stopping teams from beating them behind the arc, it will be important for the Iowa’s guards/wings Jordan Bohannon, Isaiah Moss, and Joe Wieskamp to emphasize driving to the basket as opposed to popping three pointers. This is especially important for Bohannon who is shooting 5 three-pointers for every 2 two-point attempts and making just 36% of his overall shots. The Iowa basketball team cannot afford to waste possessions with Bohannon shooting from five feet behind the arc just because he can’t get a closer shot.

Moreover, the Hawks need to begin relying on Moss and Wieskamp as a more consistent source of points from the backcourt. Moss has been shooting the ball well as of late and Wieskamp has gone on some impressive runs for a true freshman.

For an Iowa basketball team that is struggling, this could be the jumpstart this team needs to finish the season strong and restore the faith from Hawkeye nation in this program.

Tip off for this game is at 6 PM Central Standard Time at Carver Hawkeye Arena. ESPN is giving the Hawks a 40% chance to win the game while KenPom is giving Iowa a 36% chance to win. Fortunately for those of you in the state of Iowa and currently surviving the 2019 Polar Vortex, you can catch this game on FS1.