Favorable schedule
Although Iowa’s schedule is by no means easy, it’s definitely not as difficult as some of the teams they are contending with. As we mentioned last week, the Iowa football team’s three toughest games left on their schedule are @ Penn State, @ Purdue, and against Northwestern. Only one of those teams is ranked, although a case could be made that Purdue is significantly better than what their record shows.
The other two games on Iowa’s schedule come against Illinois and Nebraska which have collectively combined for four wins this season.
The key to the season is surviving this three game stretch starting with Penn State, which will likely be the last ranked team Iowa faces until the Big Ten Championship game.
Iowa win probabilities didn't move much this week w/a win over MD but a win of over PSU on the road would give them a big bump to 10+. pic.twitter.com/27u6ZXHJRq
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) October 22, 2018
As it stands right now Iowa’s chances of winning eleven games is at 10% while the highest probability of win total is nine wins at 34%. Meanwhile, the other two teams Iowa is competing against for a possible playoff berth, Ohio State and Michigan both need to play each other before the Big Ten Championship game. That means that one of those teams will have two-losses and the other is likely going to be in the championship game giving Iowa to add a second loss to the Big Ten East winner.