What will the CFB Playoff look like after Championship Saturday?

The final weekend of the college football regular season had no shortage of drama, setting up a championship Saturday filled with the most College Football Playoff implications we have ever seen in the four year history of the playoff. With the Big 12 adding a conference championship game this season, there will be five power-5 conference championship games, 4 with direct CFP implications.

Top ranked Alabama and second ranked Miami both suffered their first losses of the season in their season finales, creating a mess at the top of the rankings.

Besides #8 Notre Dame, who was the longest of long shots to make the playoff even with a win against Stanford, every other top 10 team finished regular season with a win. The CFP rankings now look like this:

There are nine teams left that have a chance to play themselves into the CFP, with some teams needing (much) more luck then others. Let’s break down each contender’s standing by conference.

SEC

There is only one team in the top seven with two losses, but that team is ranked second in the country and in complete control of their own destiny. Auburn’s two losses were by a combined 12 points on the road against Clemson and LSU, and their wins over Georgia and Alabama have done more than enough to cement them as a win-and-in team heading into the weekend. #6 ranked Georgia has the chance this Saturday to avenge their only loss. If Georgia wins, They will leapfrog both Auburn and Alabama into the CFP, and will likely finish in the top 3 of the final rankings.

In Alabama’s case, they won’t get a chance to play for the SEC title game, as Auburn stole the SEC West division title from them in the Iron Bowl. Alabama has finished the season in the top four for six straight seasons, with three national titles and a fourth championship appearance over that span. Even though the committee is only supposed to take the 12 games from this season into account, let’s not pretend that the reputation Alabama boasts doesn’t carry any weight. Their road loss to a #6 Auburn team typically wouldn’t be enough to keep them out of the playoff, even without an SEC title game appearance. The kick with the Crimson Tide this season is their lack of quality wins, as LSU is the only team they’ve beaten that finished with less than four losses, and the Tigers have a home loss to Troy on their resume. Even without a signature win, a loss by Oklahoma or Wisconsin this weekend should be enough to put the Nick Saban’s bunch in the CFP for the fourth straight season.

(Honestly, the worst thing Alabama could have done was tear the ACL of Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois. If Francois played a full season for the preseason #3 Seminoles, they might have been a 10 win team instead of a 6 win one, which would be a big boost to Alabama’s resume).

ACC

The ACC title game between #1 Clemson and #7 Miami is more or less a quarterfinal playoff game. After losing by double digits to a 5-7 Pitt team, Miami *could* be left out of the CFP even with a win. If Wisconsin wins and the committee values Alabama’s on paper prestige over Miami’s resume, then they will be heading to the Orange Bowl instead of the playoff. However, it’s highly unlikely that the committee would be able to put Bama in over Miami without receiving a ton of deserved backlash, which is why the Hurricanes will be sitting pretty with a win over Clemson.

A win for Clemson would cement the defending champions as the #1 ranked team in the country, but a loss to the Hurricanes would likely doom them. If both Oklahoma and Wisconsin lose, the committee would have a pretty tough decision to make as to which two loss team would get the fourth spot behind the SEC champ, Miami and Alabama. Clemson would have a strong case to make it in that scenario, but things would be a lot easier for Dabo Swinney’s team if they could take care of business against the U.

B1G Ten

The Big Ten title game features the only undefeated power 5 team (shout out UCF) remaining, the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin finally climbed into the top four this week after whooping Minnesota to cap off a perfect 12-0 season, and are set to take on the Big Ten East champ Ohio State. You could argue that this is the most important game in the history of Wisconsin football, a school that has never played for a college football title. Given that Wisconsin’s schedule featured just one ranked opponent, #22 Northwestern, a loss on Saturday would eliminate them from playoff contention. Wisconsin needs this game.

The #8 Buckeyes need this game as well, but even with a win it appears likely they will land outside the top 4. A Big Ten Title would jump Ohio State over Wisconsin, the SEC title game loser and Miami in the case of a Hurricane loss in the ACC title. But would it would be enough to leapfrog an 11-1 Alabama? I don’t think it would.

While Alabama didn’t even win their division, neither did Ohio State a year ago when they made the CFP at 11-1. Ohio State’s 17 point September home loss to Oklahoma is forgivable, but no more forgivable than Alabama’s 12 point road loss to Auburn last week. And while Ohio State would boast a conference title, with two top 10 wins over Wisconsin and Penn State, their lone conference loss is bad enough to keep them beneath Alabama in the eyes of the committee.

We detailed in length how incredible it was to watch Iowa dismantle the then #3 AP ranked Buckeyes in Kinnick Stadium on November 4th. We’ve also had to detail 66 yard offensive performances and a two score home loss to Purdue in the same month. A 31 point road loss to a 7-5 Iowa team will ultimately be too much for the committee to overlook when comparing Ohio State and Alabama.

Big 12

This year brings us the first Big 12 title game since the conference reduced to 10 teams back in 2011. Oklahoma stands as the #3 team in the country with Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield looking to lead the Sooners to their second CFP in the last three seasons. A win and the Sooners are in, but #11 TCU is no pushover.

The Horned Frogs aren’t in the CFP discussion themselves, but they have enough firepower led by senior quarterback Kenny Hill to give OU a run for their money. A TCU victory would cause the biggest ripple effect out of any result from this weekends slate.

If Oklahoma loses, Alabama is essentially a lock, along with the winners of the SEC and ACC title games. If Wisconsin loses, then the committee will be looking at a two loss Oklahoma team with no conference title, an Ohio State team with two losses, including a home loss to the Sooners themselves, and potentially both a two loss Clemson team and a two loss Pac-12 champion in USC. If Clemson wins and USC loses, putting in Oklahoma over Ohio State seems like the fair thing to do. A conference title has no business outweighing a 17 point head-to-head home loss.

Pac 12

#10 USC vs #12 Stanford is the most bland game of the weekend. Which is saying something, because this game should be anything but boring. I briefly touched on USC’s playoff scenario above. They aren’t dead yet, but they are on life support and have signed a DNR.

Realistically, this game will likely settle for New Year’s Six implications, as the loser will likely be left out of the major four bowl games outside of the CFP. A win would give Stanford its fourth conference title in six years, while USC hasn’t won a conference championship since 2008.

Recap

SEC:

Auburn-win and in, out with loss

Georgia-win and in, out with loss

Alabama-in with Oklahoma loss, sitting pretty with Wisconsin loss, OUT if Oklahoma and Wisconsin win

ACC:

Miami-win and almost certainly in, out with loss

Clemson-win and in, likely in with loss if both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose. Out with a loss vs Miami and a win from either Wisconsin or Oklahoma

B1G:

Wisconsin-win and in, out with loss

Ohio State-lose and out, out with a win and an Oklahoma loss, a win with an Oklahoma win forces committee to pick between OSU and Alabama, with the Bama being the likely choice.

Big 12:

Oklahoma-win and in, in with a loss paired with Ohio State win and Clemson win, out with loss and either a Wisconsin or Miami win.

TCU-Needs win for a New Years Six Bowl bid

Pac 12:

USC-Has a prayer with a win, a Clemson win, an Oklahoma loss and a Wisconsin loss

Standford- Needs a win for a New Years Six Bowl Bid

Let the chaos ensue, happy Saturday.