The University of Iowa baseball team hosts defending Big 10 champion Illinois this weekend, but so far it looks like 2015 has become a distant memory for the Fighting Illini
Iowa (12-14 overall, 3-3 Big 10) and Illinois (12-14 overall, 3-3 Big 10) come into this series looking somewhat evenly matched. Besides the identical conference and overall records, the two teams have played three common opponents. The Fighting Illini mustered a 1-4 record in those five games, while the Hawkeyes went 2-3.
Both teams are coming off rare conference series losses, Iowa at Minnesota and Illinois at Nebraska. That Big 10 series loss was the Illini’s first since 2014, and it was just the Hawkeyes’ second since the beginning of last season.
Digging deeper reveals several reasons that Iowa should be the favorite in this series, however. While the Hawkeyes are still working to equal the accomplishments of their 2015 season, the Illini might have fallen even further.
Illinois is hitting just .253 as a team, next-to-last in the Big 10. That’s largely due to the whiff factor, as the Illini’s 202 strikeouts are the fifth-most in the conference and have them averaging just 4.8 runs per game.
While Iowa hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut, their numbers are better than Illinois’ nearly across the board. The Hawkeyes aren’t relying on their bats to win this series, however. It’s Iowa’s defense and pitching that set it apart from the Illini.
No Big 10 team has been better in the field so far this season than the Hawkeyes. Iowa’s .978 team fielding percentage is tops in the conference, as is their 21 errors. By comparison, Illinois has totaled 39 errors on the season and ranks 12th in team fielding percentage.
The stellar pitching that carried the Illini to a Big 10 title has taken a dive as well. Illinois has a team earned run average of 4.18, 60 points worse than Iowa’s 3.58 team ERA that ranks fifth in the conference.
Another reason for the Hawkeyes to be optimistic is a chance at not just a series win, but a sweep. Sophomore Nick Gallagher has replaced senior Calvin Mathews in the starting pitching rotation, meaning that Iowa will no longer start its Sunday games already at a disadvantage because of Mathews’ brief outings.
Friday pitching match-ups are expected to be the best, and that could easily be the case in this series. Sophomore CJ Eldred is the first Hawkeye in five years to pitch back-to-back complete games, and his opponent Cody Sedlock currently leads the Big 10 with 52 strikeouts. First pitch is scheduled for 5:05 p.m. EDT and the game will be televised on BTN Plus.
Saturday’s 3:05 p.m. EDT middle game will be started by senior Tyler Peyton, who has been steadily improving on the mound. His opponent will be Doug Hayes, whose left arm has carried him to a record of 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA.
Gallagher will then make his first Big 10 start on Sunday at 2:05 p.m. EDT, in another BTN Plus game. So far, conference play has been kind to Gallagher. He comes in to this game with 10 2/3 innings of Big 10 work in two appearances, during which he has allowed two earned runs on seven hits. He will face Cole Bellair, who is 0-1 with a 2.48 ERA.
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Illinois is struggling to replicate its success in 2015, but that was going to be a tall order. In order for Iowa to do the same thing, the Hawkeyes need to keep enjoying the home field advantage that has been characteristic of the program under head coach Rick Heller and win this series against the Illini.