Dear Old Gold
Fansided

Iowa Basketball: How The Hawkeye Women Can Do The Improbable

By Derek Helling

Jan 16, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Whitney Jennings (15) brings the ball up court during the1st half of a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 16, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Whitney Jennings (15) brings the ball up court during the1st half of a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

The 2016 women’s Big 10 tournament’s second round begins at noon EST tomorrow for Iowa basketball with a third contest this season against the Michigan Wolverines.

That game will present hopefully just the beginning of what will become a five-game winning streak for the Hawkeyes, nabbing the conference’s automatic qualifier bid with a Big 10 tournament title.

The road is daunting, but not impossible to traverse for Iowa. Here’s how the Hawkeyes could pull off the upsets.

Second round – Thursday, March 3, noon EST/11 a.m. CST vs. 8) Michigan

Feb 20, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Katelynn Flaherty (3) moves the ball defended by Penn State Lady Lions guard Teniya Page (11) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 20, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Katelynn Flaherty (3) moves the ball defended by Penn State Lady Lions guard Teniya Page (11) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /

These teams split their two regular season meetings, as the home teams won in each game. Now they meet on a neutral court, and this could easily be either team’s game.

In the first meeting in Ann Arbor on Jan. 7, Iowa held a 17-point lead in the third quarter but was unable to close the game out. The Wolverines held a 20-5 edge in second-chance points, shot 36 percent from 3-point range, had 46 points in the paint to the Hawkeyes’ 38 and got 26 points off Iowa turnovers. Despite these facts, if not for a late Hawkeye scoring drought, this still would have been an Iowa victory.

Fast forward exactly three weeks to the re-match between these teams in Iowa City. Iowa got 11 points off Michigan turnovers and the Hawkeye bench outscored the Wolverine bench 33-6. Michigan still held edges in second-chance points and points in the paint, but the margin in second-chance points was a much slimmer 13-12 and the Wolverines were limited to 20 fewer points in the paint. As a result, Iowa was able to close out the win.

To replicate the last time these two teams met and avoid a repeat of the first, the strategy is obvious. The Hawkeyes must take care of the ball and limit Michigan to one low-percentage shot on each possession. If Iowa can do that, they should survive and advance.

Quarterfinal round – Friday, March 4, noon EST/11 a.m. CST vs. 1) Maryland

Dec 28, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (32) drives against Connecticut Huskies guard Moriah Jefferson (4) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Connecticut defeated Maryland 83-73. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 28, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (32) drives against Connecticut Huskies guard Moriah Jefferson (4) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Connecticut defeated Maryland 83-73. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Fifth-ranked Maryland comes into this game on a tear. The Terrapins have won six games in a row and 15 of their last 16 games, tallying 110 points the last time out on the court of 20th-ranked Michigan State. Maryland will enter this contest with four days of rest and with a chance at a one seed in the NCAA tournament.

The Hawkeyes saw these Terrapins just once during the regular season, the night when Maryland ended Iowa’s historic 25-game winning streak at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. This time, the stakes are much higher for both teams.

The Hawkeyes bested the Terrapins in second-chance points narrowly at 9-8, but never led as Maryland took advantage of 16 Iowa turnovers to score 18 points and outperformed the Hawkeyes 30-22 in the paint. The Terrapins also held a 10-5 edge in fast-break points as well.

In order to avoid another 20-point defeat at Maryland’s hands, Iowa has to shoot better than the 38.2 percent from the field and keep the Terrapins from repeating their outside shooting performance of nearly 54 percent. If the Hawkeyes can feed on their momentum from Thursday’s win, Maryland appears rusty from the days off, and Iowa avoids turnovers then we could see the upset of the tournament.

More from Dear Old Gold

Semifinal round – Saturday, March 5, 3 p.m. EST/2 p.m. CST vs. 4) Indiana or the winner of 5) Minnesota vs. 12) Northwestern (the Golden Gophers and Wildcats will play after the Hawkeyes and Wolverines on Thursday)

Simply put – if the Hawkeyes can get past the Terrapins – winning this game against either the Hoosiers, Golden Gophers or Wildcats should be comparatively much easier.

Iowa split the two meetings with Indiana, but the road game easily could have been a Hawkeye win if not for another late-game scoring drought. The game at Minnesota was another heartbreaker in which Iowa lead with just eight seconds left to play, and Northwestern is a far inferior team on paper.

With the momentum of three consecutive wins and a revenge victory over the conference’s top seed, it’s easy to project the Hawkeyes coming out of this game triumphant and moving on to the Big 10 tournament championship game.

Championship – Sunday, March 6, 7 p.m. EST/6 p.m. CST vs. one of the following: 2) Ohio State, 3) Michigan State, 6) Purdue, 7) Nebraska, 10) Rutgers or 11) Penn State

One of the lower seeds upsetting Ohio State and Michigan State to get to this game would be extremely beneficial to Iowa. The Hawkeyes struggled in their games against the Spartans and its contest on the Buckeyes’ court. Iowa comparatively fared much better against the Boilermakers, Cornhuskers, Nittany Lions and Scarlet Knights (3-3 in those games).

If the Hawkeyes should have to face Michigan State or Ohio State, however, the key to victory will be 40 minutes of solid defense. Iowa can’t allow either team to score 84 points (the average allowed in the three combined losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans).

An up and down season for Iowa basketball on the women’s side would be improved greatly by a Big 10 tournament championship. With that momentum on the Hawkeyes’ side, a deep NCAA tournament run wouldn’t be that hard to imagine.

Home/Iowa Basketball