Iowa Basketball vs. Illinois Preview

Although an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament is a long shot now, the final game of the regular season for the women of Iowa basketball still has some meaning.

The Hawkeyes still have one sure-fire way to reach the NCAA tournament, and defeating the Fighting Illini on Saturday could help Iowa achieve the lofty goal of winning the Big 10 tournament to secure the conference’s automatic bid.

Iowa occupies the ninth position in the current Big 10 standings, a game behind the Nebraska Cornhuskers, tied with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and a game ahead of the Penn State Nittany Lions. A win could move them up a spot. A loss could plummet them down two spots depending on the results of the three other games being played on Saturday and Sunday.

Here are all the possible scenarios and what they would mean, ordered by what would benefit the Hawkeyes the most:

If Iowa wins and Northwestern beats Nebraska on Sunday – In this scenario, both Nebraska and Iowa would have a conference record of 8-10. The Hawkeyes own the seeding tiebreaker over the Cornhuskers by virtue of their 74-68 win over Nebraska on Dec. 31. Iowa would be the eighth seed in the Big 10 tournament. The results of the Rutgers vs. Michigan (Sunday) and Penn State at Indiana (Saturday) games are meaningless for the Hawkeyes if Iowa wins.
If both Iowa and Nebraska win – Both teams get locked into their current positions, Cornhuskers at eight and Hawkeyes at nine, and again the results of the Penn State and Rutgers games are irrelevant.
If Iowa, Rutgers and Penn State all lose – The Hawkeyes are the ninth seed, the Scarlet Knights are 10th, and the Nittany Lions could drop even further depending on how other teams do. The result of the Nebraska game is meaningless for Iowa if the Hawkeyes lose.
If Iowa and Penn State lose but Rutgers wins – Rutgers and Iowa would trade places, the Scarlet Knights finishing as the ninth seed and the Hawkeyes becoming the 10th seed. The Nittany Lions would stay in their place as the 11th seed.
If Iowa and Rutgers lose and Penn State wins – There would be a three-way tie in the standings for the ninth seed between these three teams. The first tiebreaker would get thrown out as Iowa beat Rutgers, Penn State won both meetings against Iowa and the Scarlet Knights defeated the Nittany Lions. The next tiebreaker is average points for in conference games. The Hawkeyes (71.6 ppg) hold an edge over Rutgers (63.2) but the margin over Penn State (71.2) is slim. What exactly would happen in this scenario would depend on the final scores of all three games. It’s possible that in this case Iowa could be ninth, 10th or 11th.
If Iowa loses, Penn State and Rutgers both win – The Scarlet Knights would finish a game better than the Hawkeyes and be the ninth seed. The Nittany Lions, who defeated the Hawkeyes in both meetings, would be the 10th seed and Iowa would fall to the 11th seed.

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The difference between being the eighth and ninth seed is largely irrelevant. As the bracket is drawn up, the eighth and ninth seeds play each other in the first game of the day on Thursday, March 3. The winner of that game gets the tourney’s top seed (either Maryland or Ohio State) in the first quarterfinal game on Friday, March 4.

The difference between being the ninth or 10th seed isn’t that much of a concern either. If Iowa should manage to get past the conference’s seventh seed (Michigan, Nebraska or Purdue) in the third game on Thursday, they would play the second seed (either Maryland or Ohio State) in the third quarterfinal game on Friday.

The difference between the 10th and 11th seeds is huge, however, and that’s why the Hawkeyes need to avoid the last two scenarios by winning their game. The conference’s bottom four seeds have to play first-round or play-in games on Wednesday, March 2. An already tough road would be made much more difficult for the Hawkeyes, as they would have to win five games in a row instead of four.

Next: Iowa Football Has a New Recruiting Coordinator

Even if Indiana and Michigan help Iowa out by defeating Penn State and Rutgers, making an Iowa loss meaningless as far as conference tournament seeding goes, the Hawkeyes need the momentum a regular-season-ending win would provide if they want to have a chance to win four games in a row against some of the best teams in the nation.

For confidence and positioning, Iowa needs this one. Whether or not they can get it will tell us a lot about how this team will fare when the Big 10 tournament begins.

Iowa Basketball: Illinois Game Still Has Meaning For Women

By Derek Helling | Feb 26, 2016

Although an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament is a long shot now, the final game of the regular season for the women of Iowa basketball still has some meaning.

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